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In 2017, Elon Musk laid out plans to build a permanent colony on Mars -- one with at least a million human inhabitants. What would this colony look like? How would it work? Most importantly, could we use a Martian colony as an opportunity to improve on the socioeconomic practices of Earth? To find these answers, Ben, Matt and Noel went to the smartest guy they know: Marshall Brain, the founder of HowStuffWorks and author of "Imagining Elon Musk's Million-Person Mars Colony."
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array(3) { [0]=> string(150) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/programs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/2e824128-fbd5-4c9e-9a57-ae2f0056b0c4/image.jpg?t=1749831085&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }Terrifying collapse on the football field. Powerful storms slam the South. A leadership crisis in the new Congress. Correspondent Deborah Rodriguez has the CBS World News Roundup for Tuesday, January 3, 2022:
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The sudden rescinding of zero-covid strictures has, as expected, led to a spike in cases. Our correspondent visits overstretched hospitals and crematoria, and considers what will happen next. Aerial drones have in part shaped the war in Ukraine; now the naval kind are starting to play a role. And French-language purity goes out the window when it comes to startups.
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Derek Osgood comes from a family of entrepreneurs, and has always known he wanted to start something himself. Prior to that, he worked for other companies, large and small, in product and marketing roles. Some of the companies he worked for included Playstation, Rippling and BBVA. Outside of his profession, he loves to travel the world, and is a huge fantasy story nut. It's worth noting that we geeked out on fantasy novels for a good 10 minutes, as your host is a fantasy nut as well.
At his previous companies, Derek has been through hundreds of product launches, of various types and sizes. In his words... every one of them was a dumpster fire, no matter the size and supposed maturity of the company. It was always a challenge, and after trying to build a robust process in every tool imaginable, he decided to set out and build it right.
This is the creation story of Ignition.
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In the most innocent interpretation, suggesting someone should ‘do their own research’ is a reasonable bit of advice. But in the superheated world of social media discourse, #DoYourOwnResearch is a spicy rejoinder that essentially challenges someone to Google the subject since they clearly don’t know what they’re talking about. But Googling, social psychologist David Dunning pointedly notes, is not research. “The beauty and the terror of the internet,” he tells interviewer David Edmonds in this Social Science Bites podcast, “is that there’s a lot of terrific information, but there’s also a lot of misinformation and sometimes outright fraud.
“People often don’t have the wherewithal to distinguish.”
This distinguishing is an area where Dunning, a professor at the University of Michigan, does his own research.
While doing your own internet sleuthing isn’t toxic on its face, Dunning suggests that often “you don’t know when you’re researching your way into a false conclusion, and … you don’t know when to stop. The real hard problem with DYOR is when do you know when to stop: you go and you look at a couple of web pages, and ‘Well, you’ve learned something! Terrific!’ But you don’t know how much there is behind it that you still need to learn.”
One driver of DYOR, Dunning adds, is the idea that gaining (and deploying) knowledge is one’s own responsibility, which pretty much runs counter to science, which sees gaining knowledge as a collective enterprise.
One piece of collective effort in which Dunning has made a very public mark is in describing what’s come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, named for Dunning and fellow social psychologist Justin Kruger of New York University, after work they originally described two decades ago in “Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments” in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. The popular definition of the Dunning-Kruger effect, Dunning explains, is that “people who are incompetent or unskilled or not expert in a field lack expertise to recognize that they lack expertise. So they come to conclusions, decisions, opinions that they think are just fine when they’re, well, wrong.”
Dunning and Kruger’s initial research was based on simple tests – of grammar, logical thinking, classical psychology quizzes, even sense of humor – asking subjects how well they think they’re doing relative to everyone else. They found that the bottom 25 percent of participants tended to think they were doing above average. “But no.”
“To know what you don’t know,” he offers, “you need to know what you need to know to realize that your thinking diverges from that.”
It’s not true in every endeavor, he adds. “I’m a terrible golfer,” Dunning says. “And I’m fully aware that I‘m a terrible golfer!” The effect tends to show up when the skill of assessing outcomes is roughly similar to the skill of achieving outcomes. So when your golf ball flies into the nearby body of water, you don’t need special skills to know that’s bad.
Becoming an expert in everything is out of the question; the real skill will be in identifying who is a legitimate expert and drawing on their insights. (And the right expert, Dunning notes “is the right experts. With an S on the end.”)
For the record, the pair – who just received the 2023 Grawemeyer Award in Psychology for their Dunning-Kruger effect work - did not name the concept after themselves, although, as Dunning says, they’re “tickled pink that our names will forever be associated with the nincompoops, incompetent ignorant cranks, if you will.”
$2.4 billion lost. Thousands of victims. Mysterious deaths. Untold misery worldwide. You know the name. You know the memes. But do you know the real story? Welcome to “Crypto Crooks” Season 1: BitConnect, launching Tuesday, Jan. 10 at 5 a.m. EST. Follow and subscribe to “Crypto Crooks” wherever you listen to podcasts.
For our first season, we are focusing on easily the most notorious crypto scam of all – BitConnect. Between 2016 and 2018, alongside a surging mania for “Initial Coin Offerings,” BitConnect siphoned away an immense amount of capital its customers intended to invest in cryptocurrency.
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Chainalysis is a blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services, and research to government agencies, web3 companies, financial institutions, and insurance and cybersecurity companies. Our data powers investigation, compliance, and business intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the world’s most high-profile criminal cases. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com.
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