Right now, the economy is running hot. Inflation is high, and central banks are pushing up interest rates to fight it. But before the pandemic, economies around the world were stuck in a different rut: low inflation, low interest rates, low growth.
In 2013, Larry Summers unearthed an old term from the Great Depression to explain why the economy was in this rut: secular stagnation. The theory resonated with Olivier Blanchard, another leading scholar, because he had made similar observations himself. Larry and Olivier would go on to build a case for why secular stagnation was a defining theory of the economy and why government policies needed to respond to it. They helped reshape many people's understanding of the economy, and suggested that this period of slow growth and low interest rates was here to stay for a long time.
But today, Larry and Olivier are no longer the duo they used to be. As inflation has spiked worldwide, interest rates have followed suit. Earlier this year, Larry announced that he was no longer on the secular stagnation train. Olivier, meanwhile, believes we're just going through a minor blip and will return to a period of low interest rates within the near future. He doesn't see the deep forces that led to a long-run decline in interest rates as just vanishing. Who's right? The future of the global economy could depend on the answer.
The Chainlink co-founder discusses an important societal paradigm shift.
NLW is joined by Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov for the first in “The Breakdown”'s "Paradigm Shift" interview series. Sergey discusses why society's trust model has broken down, how cryptographic truth serves as an alternative, and why this alternative method of understanding truth will become even more important as a countermeasure to artificial intelligence.
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“The Breakdown” is written, produced and narrated by Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Michele Musso and research by Scott Hill. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. Music behind our sponsor today is “Foothill Blvd” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: by CoinDesk.
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We go in-depth on an article that has not received the attention it is due: an investigation into an automated welfare fraud system in the Netherlands, which is based on unprecedented access to the machine learning model, its training data, and operational handbooks. Through a deep analysis of the systems mechanics, this investigation goes beyond validating what we already know to be true about how such algorithms discriminate. It shows how these systems are complex and targeted in their discrimination, while also being simplistic and arbitrary in their decisions.
Articles we discuss
••• Inside the Suspicion Machine https://www.wired.com/story/welfare-state-algorithms/
••• Welfare surveillance system violates human rights, Dutch court rules https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/05/welfare-surveillance-system-violates-human-rights-dutch-court-rules
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Hosted by Jathan Sadowski (www.twitter.com/jathansadowski) and Edward Ongweso Jr. (www.twitter.com/bigblackjacobin). Production / Music by Jereme Brown (www.twitter.com/braunestahl)
On today's show, Clarence grants himself clearance over Harlan Crow, collector of memorabilia ... and jurists. And debating the dangers of a gerontocracy vs. an infantocracy. Plus, we're joined once more by Dr. Robert Waldinger, author of The Good Life: Lessons from the World's Longest Scientific Study of Happiness.
The city is a food writer’s delicious playground, and a new guide book aims to point you to all the best dishes created in the city. Reset learns about the origin stories that started them all with Monica Eng, author of Made in Chicago and Chicago reporter for AXIOS and David Hammond, author of Made in Chicago and Chicago food writer
Chicago gets the DNC, staff at local universities continue to strike, and workers at the Museum of Science and Industry vote to unionize. Reset breaks down these stories and much more with Alice Yin, politics reporter for the Chicago Tribune, David Greising, president and CEO of Better Government Association, and Dave McKinney, WBEZ state politics reporter.
The Environmental Protection Agency unveiled ambitious new emissions rules this week. The agency estimates car makers would need up to 67% of their new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032 in order to comply with the stricter standards.
Michelle Krebs, executive analyst with Cox Automotive says the changes "reinvent the vehicle" and will require a reinvention of the auto industry.
In the face of these impending changes, Keith Barry, an automotive reporter for Consumer Reports, walks through what prospective electric vehicle buyers should be considering.
Investors cheered the steadily improving inflation story. (0:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss: - How the current macro environment is what the Fed was aiming for - JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo starting earnings season in a strong way - Boeing's latest production challenge - Key takeaways from Andy Jassy's shareholder letter - Warner Bros Discovery's confusing rebrand of HBO Max (19:11) Motley Fool senior analyst Tim Beyers weighs in on how board games and video games are finding success on the big screen, the future of movie theaters, and why "YouTube has an uncommon amount of power right now." (33:47) Jason and Matt share two stocks on their radar: Airbnb and T. Rowe Price. The new episode of Stock Advisor Roundtable, our premium podcast, is available exclusively on Spotify! For more details go to Roundtable.Fool.com. Stocks discussed: JPM, WFC, BA, AMZN, WMT, WBD, HAS, DIS, NFLX, AAPL, CMCSA, GOOG, GOOGL, ABNB, TROW Host: Chris Hill Guests: Matt Argersinger, Jason Moser, Tim Beyers Engineer: Dan Boyd