Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong

This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.

Further Reading:

“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal

“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times

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Lost Debate - Biden’s Brain Trust

In this special episode, Ravi is joined by Michael D. Shear, White House correspondent at The New York Times, to discuss what to expect from the upcoming presidential debate. They then turn to President Joe Biden’s closest advisers; who they are, why they’re largely unknown, and how they wield their power within the administration. Finally, Ravi and Michael explore the political reasoning behind and implications of Biden’s recent executive actions on immigration.


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CBS News Roundup - 06/26/2024 | World News Roundup Late Edition

Highly anticipated Supreme Court case involving Idaho's abortion law accidentally posted online. Floodwaters continue to rise in parts of the Midwest. Homeland Security Secretary says Biden administration's new border policy has had an effect on the number of illegal border crossings. CBS News Correspondent Jennifer Keiper with tonight's World News Roundup.

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The Indicator from Planet Money - What’s going to happen to the Trump tax cuts?

The last major overhaul of the tax code was in 2017, when Republicans passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Much of that is set to expire next year, and that means a big debate over tax policy is looming.

Voters this fall won't just be voting for a president—they'll essentially decide who pays for the government and how much for years to come.

Today on the show, we explain the battle lines forming in this tax code throwdown.

Related Episodes:
The Good, The Bad and The Tax Cuts
Happy Birthday, Tax Cuts!

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Planet Money - The Carriage Tax (Update)

(Note: A version of this episode originally ran in 2019.)

In 1794, George Washington decided to raise money for the federal government by taxing the rich. He did it by putting a tax on horse-drawn carriages.

The carriage tax could be considered the first federal wealth tax of the United States. It led to a huge fight over the power to tax in the U.S. Constitution, a fight that continues today.

Listen back to our 2019 episode: "Could A Wealth Tax Work?"

Listen to The Indicator's 2023 episode: "Could SCOTUS outlaw wealth taxes?"

This episode was hosted by Greg Rosalsky and Bryant Urstadt. It was originally produced by Nick Fountain and Liza Yeager, with help from Sarah Gonzalez. Today's update was produced by Willa Rubin and edited by Molly Messick and our executive producer, Alex Goldmark.

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Strict Scrutiny - SCOTUS Greenlights Government Corruption

Leah, Melissa, and Kate weigh the implications of Bloomberg’s scoop on EMTALA (apparently someone at the court got a little trigger-happy with the upload button). Then they take a look at today’s two official opinions–is a $13,000 bribe equivalent to buying someone Chipotle? Coach Kavanaugh has thoughts. And did the government strong-arm social media companies into censoring content? There’s a word for that: jawboning.

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Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick | Law, justice, and the courts - Opinionpalooza: The Vanishing Emergency Abortion Decision (Preview)

On Wednesday, the Supreme Court issued two important decisions in its traditional fashion: a box of printed copies for those journalists in the press room, and furious SCOTUS website refreshing for those who were not. 

Murthy v Missouri was one of the closely watched social media cases of the term, about “jawboning” or when and if the government can ask/prod/urge private social media companies to moderate content in the interest of things like public health or election integrity, or whether such conduct constitutes censorship. Snyder v US concerned corruption and the difference between bribes and gratuities under a federal corruption law. 

Somewhere in between the publishing of these opinions, however, the court inadvertently and very briefly published what may or may not be its opinion in a pair of emergency abortion cases, Moyle v United States and Idaho v United States. The Court spokeswoman urged us all to pay no attention to the early draft. Chaos ensued. On this extra, members-only episode of Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick is joined by Mark Joseph Stern to try to get our arms around a day of big news, including the “now you see it, now you don’t” abortion news at the highest court in the land. 

This is part of Opinionpalooza, Slate’s coverage of the major decisions from the Supreme Court this June. We kicked things off this year by explaining How Originalism Ate the Law. The best way to support our work is by joining Slate Plus. (If you are already a member, consider a donation or merch!)

This episode is member-exclusive. Listen to it now by subscribing to Slate Plus. By joining, not only will you unlock exclusive SCOTUS analysis and weekly extended episodes of Amicus, but you’ll also access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen.

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