Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - How to Win Bets and Influence Elections

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

Further Reading:

Charity Navigator 

More on Betsy Paluck’s research 

Willy Nelson’s discography 

Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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It Could Happen Here - Vance & Walz Become Friends During Debate

Robert, Sophie, and Garrison discuss the vice presidential debate between Minnesota governor Tim Walz and Ohio senator JD Vance.

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CBS News Roundup - 10/02/2024 | World News Roundup Late Edition

New filing by special counsel in Trump election interference case alleges the former president "resorted to crimes" in bid to retain power. President Biden tours hurricane-ravaged Carolinas. Israel mulls next step following Iranian missile attacks. CBS News Correspondent Jennifer Keiper with tonight's World News Roundup.

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Time To Say Goodbye - The Message by Ta-Nehisi Coates and What Writing is For with Jazmine Hughes

Hello!

Apologies for the slight delay in getting this episode out but we have a great show today with the writer Jazmine Hughes. We talk about Ta-Nehisi Coates’s new book about writing, the West Bank and his travels, the writer-as-activist-celebrity, and the strange and tangled relationship that we, as minority writers, have with prestige media outlets.

Enjoy!



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Planet Money - How Venezuela imploded (update)

(Note: A version of this episode originally ran in 2016.)

Back in 2016, things were pretty bad in Venezuela. Grocery stores didn't have enough food. Hospitals didn't have basic supplies, like gauze. Child mortality was spiking. Businesses were shuttering. It's one of the epic economic collapses of our time. And it was totally avoidable.

Venezuela used to be a relatively rich country. It has just about all the economic advantages a country could ask for: Beautiful beaches and mountains ready for tourism, fertile land good for farming, an educated population, and oil, lots and lots of oil.

But during the boom years, the Venezuelan government made some choices that add up to an economic time bomb.

Today on the show, we have an economic horror story about a country that made all the wrong decisions with its oil money. It's a window into the fundamental way that money works and how when you try to control it, you can lose everything.

Then, an update on Venezuela today. How it went from a downward spiral, to a tentative economic stabilization... amidst political upheaval.

This original episode is hosted by Robert Smith and Noel King. It was produced by Nick Fountain and Sally Helm. Today's update was hosted by Amanda Aronczyk, produced by Sean Saldana, fact checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Neal Rauch. Alex Goldmark is our Executive Producer.

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The Gist - Knucklehead Of State

The stakes for debates are pretty low when the Vice Presidency is the office in question, but J.D. Vance seems to have said better sounding words than Tim Walz, according to most reactions. Putting in a word for Walz—or at least a warning against Vance—is our guest Democratic strategist and analyst Jess McIntosh, who is here to assess the Vice Presidential debate. Plus, a dock strike could jeopardize goods across America. Turns out, dockworkers earn on average more than $150k a year at the East Coast's biggest port, and they also hold most of the cards in this negotiation.


Produced by Joel Patterson and Corey Wara

Email us at thegist@mikepesca.com

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The Indicator from Planet Money - Are we about to lose TikTok? Like actually tho?

TikTok could begin shutting down in the U.S. as soon as January 19 of next year. But the app is not going down without a fight. The company is asking a panel of federal judges to block the law in a high-profile case that pits free speech versus national security. Today on the show, how TikTok got to this point and what we can expect from the app's last ditch effort to stay alive in the U.S.

Related episodes:
Tick tock for TikTok? (Apple / Spotify)
Is Project Texas enough to save TikTok? (Apple / Spotify)

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