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Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?
That?s the subject of Alex Bellos? new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.
Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles.
Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon
The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?
The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?
Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?
And try your hand at a puzzle you?re likely to get wrong.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
‘Professor Risk’ David Spiegelhalter delves into the data and statistics to explore the forces of chance, ignorance and luck in The Art of Uncertainty. Whereas life is uncertain, he shows how far the circumstances of how, when and where you were born have an overriding influence on your future. But he warns against confusing the improbable with the impossible.
The novelist Roddy Doyle returns to the fortunes of one of his iconic characters, Paula Spencer, in his new book, The Woman Behind The Door. Mother, grandmother, widow, addict and survivor Paula Spencer is finally laying the ghosts of the past to rest, but how much is passed on to the next generation?
The historian Eliza Filby is interested in inheritance of a different kind – money and housing. In Inheritocracy: It’s Time to Talk About the Bank of Mum and Dad, she explores the nature of privilege through her own family’s experience. Filby’s grandfather had the lucky fortune of winning a house in a card game and the family went on to become ‘working class accidental millionaires’ who could pass on their fortune to later generations.
Producer: Katy Hickman
We don?t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme.
Speaking on the ?Thought for the Day? slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion.
Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK? How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon
The historian Timothy Snyder is famous for his work on the horrors of the 20th century and his call to arms to fight against tyranny in the 21st. Now, in ‘On Freedom’ he explores what liberty really means. He challenges the idea that this is freedom ‘from’ state or other obligations, and explores how across the US, Russia and Ukraine, true liberty is the freedom ‘to’ thrive and take risks.
The Ukrainian poet, Oskana Maksymchuk also considers the question of freedom in her collection, Still City, a book that started as a poetic journal on the eve of the Russian invasion in 2021. The fragmentary poems detail the everyday moments amid the violence and fear and precarity of a country at war.
The Russian Orthodox Church has managed to survive the turbulent history of the country, from tsarist demagoguery to Soviet atheism, and is now free to flourish under Vladimir Putin. But in her new book, The Baton and the Cross, the journalist Lucy Ash reveals how the religion has formed an unholy alliance with politics, state security and big money.
Producer: Katy Hickman
Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk.
In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy.
Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that?s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon
Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners? Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a ?record breaking? renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don?t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon
Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.
We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve Greenwood Editor: Richard Vadon
Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs? Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a ?22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?
Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Andy Fell Editor: Richard Vadon