Author: BBC Radio 4

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Is the UN underestimating the global fall in fertility?

Every two years, the UN release their predictions for the future population of humanity ? currently expected to peak in the 2080s at around 10.3 billion people.

One of the things they use to work this out is the fertility rate, the number of children the average woman is expected to have in her lifetime. When this number falls below 2, the overall population eventually falls. In this episode of More or Less, we look at the fertility estimates for one country ? Argentina. The graph of the real and predicted fertility rate for that country looks quite strange.

The collected data ? that covers up to the present day ? shows a fertility rate that?s falling fast. But the predicted rate for the future immediately levels out. The strangeness has led some people to think that the UN might be underestimating the current fall in global fertility.

To explain what?s going on we speak to Patrick Gerland, who runs the population estimates team in the United Nations Population Division.

Presenter / producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

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Start the Week - Mathematics, Symbiosis and Japanese art

In his new book, Blueprints, Marcus du Sautoy traces the connections between mathematics and art and the ways in which creatives use numbers to underpin their work – unconsciously or otherwise. From the earliest stone circles to the unique architecture of Zaha Hadid, du Sautoy shows us that there are blueprints everywhere and how logic and aesthetics are intrinsically intermingled.

Sophie Pavelle is also interested in connections and her forthcoming book, To Have or To Hold, explores symbiotic relationships in nature. Focusing on eight key examples, Sophie Pavelle explains how these mutually beneficial connections are crucial for the survival of our natural world and how they play an integral role in regulating ecosystems and strengthening resilience. She asks if we are capable of restoring and nurturing our environment or will we continue to exploit the Earth’s resources, till death do us part?

The British Museum’s new exhibition illuminates the captivating work of the nineteenth-century Japanese artist, Utagawa Hiroshige (from 1st May to 7th September 2025). He was fascinated by the natural world and many of his pictures take flora and fauna as their subject matter. Hiroshige was one of Japan’s most talented, prolific and popular artists and his influence was not only felt in his home country, but spread globally – influencing artists such as Vincent Van Gogh and contemporary artists such as Julian Opie. The curator of the exhibition, Alfred Haft, shines a light on the oeuvre of Hiroshige, his techniques and enduring legacy.

Producer: Natalia Fernandez

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - How dead is the internet?

In the early 2020s, a conspiracy theory started circulating online known as the ?dead internet theory?.

This suggested that, instead of a vibrant digital super-community where people freely share things like cat videos and conspiracy theories, the internet was instead basically dead - an AI dystopia controlled by the deep state, where almost everything you see and interact with is generated by computers. The theory that the internet is 100% dead can be easily disproven, but the theory does hint at something real. The internet certainly is full of ?bots?, autonomous bits of software that are definitely not alive.

In this episode, we investigate one specific claim about the number of these bots on the internet - the idea that more than half of internet traffic is bots. Where does this claim come from, and is it true?

Presenter/producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

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Start the Week - History: private, personal and political

The cultural historian Tiffany Jenkins looks at the long history of the private life from Ancient Athens to the digital age. In her new book, Strangers and Intimates: The Rise and fall of the Private Life, she examines how our attitudes to the intimate and personal, have shifted over time. She argues that the challenge of big tech is simply the latest development that has seen our private lives increasingly exposed for public consumption. It is only through understanding the history of the very idea of the private life, that we might protect it.

Homework: A Memoir is Geoff Dyer's new book. In it he tells his own story, that of a boy growing up in a working class family in the 1960s and 1970s. He charts the transformative opportunities afforded by the post war settlement for an eleven year old boy who wins a place at a grammar school. Evoking deep personal memories, he explores the challenges of his childhood and teenage years in the mid twentieth century England.

Lanre Bakare is interested in the stories of the Black Britain we don’t often hear – the one that exists beyond London. In moving his focus outside the capital, he explores the economic and social unrest of 1970s and 1980s from very different perspectives. His new book, We Were There: How Black Culture, Resistance and Community Shaped Modern Britain suggests that we need to incorporate a broader range of the experiences of Black Britons into the fabric of our national story.

Producer: Ruth Watts

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Warren Buffett?s brilliant bets

Warren Buffett has announced he is stepping down as CEO of his company, Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett is one of the richest people in the world, and is widely held up as the greatest investor who ever lived. He?s also been remarkably critical of other masters of the financial universe.

Tim Harford talks to Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the book Trillions, about Buffett?s money making method, and how he used a massive bet to make a point about hedge funds.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

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Start the Week - Smell – the underrated sense

Our sense of smell is vital to appreciating food and drink, it can warn us of danger, and enhance enjoyment of our environment, and yet it is one of our least explored sensory systems. In The Forgotten Sense, olfaction specialist Dr Jonas Olofsson explains the science behind our sense of smell.

Dr Ally Louks caused a stink on social media when she mentioned the subject of her PhD thesis, Olfactory Ethics: The Politics of Smell in Modern and Contemporary Prose. But she shows just how much readers can learn from paying attention to the aroma of a writer’s work.

While imagining the stench of a Dickensian city street can enhance a reader’s experience, what about actually smelling burning rubber as you play a video racing game? Professor Alan Chalmers explains the groundbreaking research currently ongoing to make gaming a more immersive experience, with smell at its centre.

Producer: Katy Hickman

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Bonus episode: The Autism Curve

An interruption to your regular podcast feed: the first episode of a new BBC Radio 4 series investigating the steep rise in autism diagnoses.

The Autism Curve looks into the data that has prompted arguments - and conspiracy theories - about what?s behind the rapid rise. It goes on to explore changes in what autism is, who gets to define it, and whose experience counts.

In this first episode, Ginny Russell discusses her 20-year study that showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses in the UK on an exponential curve. And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discovery at a dementia clinic led him to calculate that that enormous rise in diagnoses may still undercount the country?s autistic population by as much as 1.2 million.

Listen to the rest of The Autism Curve here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002bszl

Archive: BBC; CSPAN; Fox News; CNN.

Presenter: Michael Blastland Series Producer: Simon Maybin Editor: Clare Fordham Sound mix: Neil Churchill Production Co-ordinator: Gemma Ashman

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Donald Trump: 100 days fact-check

On the 29th April US President Donald Trump took to the stage in Michigan to celebrate his first 100 days in office.

This is a milestone in American politics, but is everything he claims the administration has achieved true?

The BBC?s US National Digital Reporter Mike Wendling joins us to fact-check President Trump?s claims on immigration, the stock market, fentanyl and?.eggs.

Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Jack Morris Editor: Richard Vadon

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Are 80% of women really only attracted to 20% of men?

Netflix?s psychological drama Adolescence has started a debate about teenage boys and misogyny in modern society. It tells the story of a seemingly normal young boy, Jamie, who is arrested after the brutal murder of a girl in his class.

The series focuses on how young men are being radicalised against women by various podcasts, blogs and forums that make up the anti-feminist movement, the so-called ?manosphere?. These podcasts often give men tips about how to be an ?alpha? male and promote the idea that feminism has set back men's rights. They use a range of material to back up their claims, including statistics. One such statistic was quoted in Adolescence and used to explain Jamie?s hatred towards women - that 80% of women are only attracted to 20% of men. Where does this claim come from and is it true? We look into the alleged maths behind the misogyny. Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

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Start the Week - Advocating for nature

In his new book, Robert Macfarlane takes the reader on a river journey, through history and geography, to posit the idea that rivers are not merely for human use, but living beings. In Is A River Alive? he argues that human fate is interwoven with the natural world, and that it’s time we treated nature not as a resource, but a fellow being.

But does the natural world have legal rights? In A Barrister for the Earth the lawyer Monica Feria-Tinta explains how she’s sought justice for environmental wrongs. Her case against the destruction of cloud forests was the world’s first Rights of Nature case.

In Britain many environmental campaigners argue for the Right to Roam and greater access to private land. But in Uncommon Ground, Patrick Galbraith presents a counterargument on the benefits of restricting access to the countryside, advocating for wildlife’s right to tranquillity.

Producer: Katy Hickman