Author: Pushkin Industries

Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations.

Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year!

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/dfd94726-bfdd-4b29-956e-b24a0155482d/image.jpg?t=1734555548&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024.

Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/eea895f0-d329-4d88-986f-b244002c6d6d/image.jpg?t=1733971912&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season.

By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/e3128089-a8fc-451c-87c2-b23c01747734/image.jpg?t=1733352700&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made.

Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions.

Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at riskybusiness@pushkin.fm with any suggestions.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/cadcf0b8-3e7a-4b4a-94ab-b236002ad9b3/image.jpg?t=1732762066&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/8234ec53-4059-417d-98c3-b22e01733bd2/image.jpg?t=1732143354&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/b2bcc463-ae51-47f7-9e69-b227016e83bb/image.jpg?t=1731536640&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/e8ef16b4-8a48-4e0f-8c29-b21e01709310/image.jpg?t=1730759264&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.

And of course, we spend some time looking at the model.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/7e56e3cd-17d7-46f7-b994-b21a000fc1b5/image.jpg?t=1730336780&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

Read More at Bloomberg.com:
https://bloom.bg/46Q66tS
https://bloom.bg/3X54rNP

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/ffb4065f-bd21-4390-90c9-b21801476dd7/image.jpg?t=1730233027&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }