Author: Pushkin Industries

Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports.

Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Maria sits down with Bill Perkins, the legendary energy trader, to talk about his approach to risk in business, poker, and life.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Nate’s election model is back on, and it’s in Kamala Mode. Nate and Maria discuss what the model shows us about Kamala Harris’ chances, and the strange election misinformation that has been going around. Then, they are joined by World Series of Poker Main Event winner Jonathan Tamayo to discuss his win – and the controversy that surrounds it. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Biden’s out of the race! Matt Glassman joins Nate to talk about what the consolidation behind Kamala Harris reveals about party politics and who she might pick for a running mate.

Further Reading:

Why Biden Finally Quit from Politico

Can Harris Beat Trump? from New York Magazine

What a Kamala Harris Presidency Might Look Like from Semafor

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race. 

Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden.

Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves. 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.

Further Reading:

“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin

“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN

“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.

Further Reading:

“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal

“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.

Further Reading:

“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times

“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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