What A Day - A Polling Surprise Feat. Nate Silver

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day.

Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted’ movement,’ talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.

Show Notes:

What Next | Daily News and Analysis - What to Watch While Watching Election Results

The worst part about the election being tomorrow is knowing that we (almost definitely) won’t know the results tomorrow.


Guests:

Ari Berman, voting rights reporter for Mother Jones

Kadia Goba, political reporter for Semafor

Isaac Saul, founder of the Tangle newsletter


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Podcast production by Elena Schwartz, Paige Osburn, Anna Phillips, Madeline Ducharme and Rob Gunther.

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What Next | Daily News and Analysis - TBD | u up? Go vote.

Voters in swing states are being subjected to constant political messages—on billboards, commercials and, increasingly, via text messages. But are dozens of “make a plan to vote” texts you’re receiving going to make a difference?


Guest: Jacob Neiheisel, political science professor at the University at Buffalo 


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What A Day - The Far-Right War for Trump’s 2025 Agenda

If Trump wins the presidential election, Project 2025 gives us an inkling of what his next term might look like. But due to a power struggle within the far-right, there could be another plan that’s just as threatening. On this week’s “How We Got Here,” Max and Erin hear from New York Times reporter Ken Bensinger about the America First Policy Institute and its political goals with a second Trump term.

More or Less: Behind the Stats - What can economics learn from sport?

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out.

Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer ? sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes.

Ignacio talks to Tim Harford about some of his favourite economic theories, demonstrated in action in sporting competition.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

What A Day - Do Something! Get Out And Vote!

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump spent their Thursdays courting voters in the Southwest. Trump started his day in New Mexico, a state that Democrats are expected to easily win, before heading to events in Nevada and Arizona. Harris also spent her day in the two Western swing states, wrapping up the night at a rally with pop megastar Jennifer Lopez. With just four days left until Election Day, Alex Wagner of MSNBC's ‘Alex Wagner Tonight’ joins us to talk about what she’s hearing on the ground and Democratic fears about a 2016 repeat.

And in headlines: The head of Trump’s transition team outs himself as an anti-vaxxer on CNN, Republican Vice Presidential Nominee J.D. Vance joined Joe Rogan for a three-hour interview, and inflation continues to cool.

Show Notes:


 

What Next | Daily News and Analysis - TBD | What Elon Wants From Trump

How did Elon Musk go from a poster to someone pumping millions of dollars towards Donald Trump? And what’s he hoping to get for doing so?


Guest: Max Chafkin, Bloomberg Businessweek columnist. 


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