Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?

We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.

For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Source - Trump pulling the plug on clean energy is costing you

The Trump administration has abruptly canceled 24 federally approved clean energy manufacturing grants totaling some 3.7 billion dollars—halting momentum on next-generation U.S. Critics say this is a major blow to job creation in states like Texas. But also will the U.S. be at a global disadvantage as cheap renewable energy is developed by other nations?

The Gist - Fordow The Mop Tolls

The United States has bombed Iranian nuclear facilities—an extraordinary military action authorized by a President who campaigned against prolonged wars. In today’s interview, national security expert Michael Allen, host of NatSec Matters, offers insight into the Israeli strikes, Iran’s capacity to respond, and what Trump’s decision means for the region and the world. Plus, we weigh the risks of a quagmire against the reactions from MAGA loyalists who only just learned how to pronounce “Fordow.” Trump’s instincts are erratic, his rhetoric reckless—but the strikes appear largely effective, and now the world waits to see what comes next. Produced by Corey Wara
Production Coordinator Ashley Khan
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Honestly with Bari Weiss - Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Damaged or Destroyed?

When we last recorded Saturday night, the U.S. had just announced its strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. had entered the war. The restrainers had seemingly lost.

In the following hours, President Donald Trump said the mission was a “spectacular military success.” And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the program “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. 

But there’s much more to that story than meets the eye. As Jay Solomon wrote in our pages: Before the U.S. struck, 16 cargo trucks entered the fortified mountain complex and moved unidentified equipment to another location. Are the sites destroyed or merely damaged? Was enriched uranium smuggled out? It all remains unclear.

Now the war is heating up. Israel has expanded its bombing campaign beyond nuclear facilities to hit regime targets. Qatar has closed its airspace. And just as we write this, Iran has reportedly fired toward Qatar and Iraq.

It all begs the question: Was the strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant the end of this war—or just the beginning? And what comes next?

To understand the state of the nuclear facilities and the state of the war, we’ve brought together three of the most well-read experts: Michael Oren, Jay Solomon, and Matti Friedman.

Oren is the former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. He served from 2009 to 2013. He is also a former Knesset member. He is the author of many books, including Ally: My Journey Across the American-Israeli Divide.

Solomon is an investigative journalist who has covered Iran and the region for decades. He just published an explosive piece for The Free Press titled “Did Iran Just Sneak Out Critical Nuclear Material from Fordow?

And, Friedman is our Jerusalem-based columnist, and the author of four books, including his latest, Who by Fire: Leonard Cohen in the Sinai. He just wrote  “After the Bombs: American B-2s Just Changed the Middle East. Now It’s Time to Return the Region to the Humans Who Live Here” for our pages.


We’ll note we recorded this Monday morning, starting around 11 a.m. ET, as a Free Press Live event. To join these, you just need to do one thing—and that’s become a Free Press subscriber.

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1A - ‘If You Can Keep It’: The Separation Of Church And State

Donald Trump's new Commission on Religious Liberty met last week for the first time.

When Trump signed the executive order in May establishing the group, he marked the occasion by saying, "We're bringing religion back to our country, and it's a big deal."

But isn't the separation of church and state guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution? Can the president just "forget about it" even once?

We discuss the complicated answer.

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The Bulwark Podcast - Bill Kristol: Trump Is Not the Right Man for a Crisis

Tim and Bill may have different takes on the wisdom of the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear sites—and on potential regime change—but they see eye-to-eye on the risks of Trump's ego and his incapable advisers in a dangerous situation. And where is the missing enriched uranium? Meanwhile, Stephen Miller's masked goons violently assaulted an immigrant landscaper and father of three Marines in Southern California. Plus, the trans military ban is un-American, local anti-trans laws are trampling all over parents' rights, and why didn't the moderate Dem establishment circle the wagons around a candidate who could've knocked Cuomo out of contention? 

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller
show notes

1A - The Aftermath Of US Strikes On Iranian Nuclear Sites

With strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, President Donald Trump has brought the United States into Israel's war with Iran.

Israel began its campaign against Iran 10 days ago with what it called a "preemptive strike." Now, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned on social media that Iran "reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people."

Iran has so far retaliated only on Israeli sites. Some 40,000 American troops on the ground across the Middle East are on alert.

We discuss the latest and look ahead to what could happen next.

Want to support 1A? Give to your local public radio station and subscribe to this podcast. Have questions? Connect with us. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.

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The Commentary Magazine Podcast - Destroying Nuclear Sites Is Good, Not Bad

Today's podcast explores the strange disappointment of so-called "arms control" experts at the effort to eliminate Iran's nuclear program—which they seem to oppose on the grounds that it threatens efforts on paper to control nuclear proliferation. Also, Trump as a gift to the Jewish people and the dangers of tomorrow's NYC mayoral primary. Give a listen.


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Bad Faith - Episode 484 Promo – Can the Left Learn From Zohran? (w/ Ross Barkan)

Subscribe to Bad Faith on Patreon to instantly unlock this episode and our entire premium episode library: http://patreon.com/badfaithpodcast

Journalist & author of CUOMO: Return of the Dark Prince Ross Barkan returns to Bad Faith to discuss with Brie his tight coverage of the New York City mayoral race. Barkan worked closely with socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani back when Zohran managed Ross' 2017 State Senate campaign, and he can offer unique insight into how Mamdani has managed to surge to the top of the polls against corrupt, billionaire-backed sex pest and former governor Andrew Cuomo. Also discussed: what it means to run a good campaign, what we might expect to see on election day, and what the left can learn from Zohran no matter the outcome.

Subscribe to Bad Faith on YouTube for video of this episode. Find Bad Faith on Twitter (@badfaithpod) and Instagram (@badfaithpod).