Category: News

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Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions

Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus candidate win…but, does it? Finally, they talk about Nate’s recent trip to the Manifest conference in Berkeley, and why they’ve become more skeptical of the idea that artificial superintelligence might soon transform the world.

Further Reading:

Silver Bulletin guest post by Joel Wertheimer: Can anyone beat Cuomo? And is it Zohran?

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Consider This from NPR - Lessons from Iraq, as Trump teases attacks on Iran

In 2003, the U.S. launched a war in Iraq based on what turned out to be bad intelligence about weapons programs, then spent years mired in a conflict with no clear end.

Today, President Trump is threatening to bring the U.S. military into another Middle East conflict. As with Iraq, the justification for a potential attack on Iran is the alleged threat of a nuclear weapon.

We talk to journalist Steve Coll, author of The Achilles Trap: Saddam Hussein, the CIA, and the Origins of America's Invasion of Iraq about how this moment echoes the run-up to the war in Iraq and how it differs.

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Cato Daily Podcast - Best of Cato Daily Podcast: When Lawmakers Don’t Make the Laws (State Government Edition)

Caleb O. Brown hosted the Cato Daily Podcast for nearly 18 years, producing well over 4000 episodes. He has gone on to head Kentucky’s Bluegrass Institute. This is one among the best episodes produced in his tenure, selected by the host and listeners.


The people who write the rules under which we must live generally ought to be subject to accountability from voters. That’s not a controversial proposition, but how it works in practice is more complicated. Daniel Dew of the Pacific Legal Foundation comments.

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More or Less: Behind the Stats - Are 4% of young women in the UK on OnlyFans?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. This week:

We debunk a false claim that the hotel bill for immigrants is the size of the tax bill for Manchester.

An article in the Spectator claimed that 4% of women aged between 18 and 34 in the UK are OnlyFans creators. We track down the source and discover that it is not very good.

Do people in Scotland use much more water than people in Yorkshire? If so, why?

And we examine a popular claim that today’s working mothers spend more time with their children than your stereotypical 1950s housewife did.

Make sure you get in touch if you’ve seen a number you think Tim and the team should take a look at. The email is moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Josephine Casserly Producers: Nicholas Barrett, Lizzy McNeill and David Verry Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

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The Indicator from Planet Money - Why the 30-year bond matters

Last week, the U.S. Treasury held an auction for 30-year bonds. Some were worried no one would show up to buy these things! That didn't happen, but the 'long bond' isn't exactly thriving at the moment. Today on the show, we look back at why we have such a long maturity bond and why it might be a good idea to start paying attention to it going forward.

Related episodes:
Bond market nightmares (Apple / Spotify)
Bond vigilantes. Who they are, what they want, and how you'll know they're coming (Apple / Spotify)
Trying to solve the mystery of big bond yields (Apple / Spotify)

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Consider This from NPR - What’s at stake in the conflict between Israel and Iran?

The United States has worked for decades to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Now Israel says it is attacking Iran to remove that threat. What are the stakes in this conflict, not only for the two nations directly involved, but for the US and the world?

Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Aaron Stein, the President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute about those stakes and the history of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

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