Short Wave - Why Can’t We Predict Earthquakes?

In the wake of the massive earthquake in Turkey and Syria, many scientists have been saying this area was "overdue" for a major quake. But no one knew just when: No scientist has "ever predicted a major earthquake," the U.S. Geological Survey says. Even the most promising earthquake models can only offer seconds of warning. In this episode, host Emily Kwong talks to geologist Wendy Bohon and NPR science correspondent Geoff Brumfiel about why earthquake prediction can be so difficult, and the science that fuels these models.

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Short Wave - Who Gets The First Peek At The Secrets Of The Universe?

The James Webb Space Telescope is by far the most powerful space-based telescope ever deployed by the United States. But it is only one instrument, and scientists all over the world have to share. The JWST's managers received more than 1,600 research proposals for what the telescope should look at.

When an astronomer or a team does get some much-coveted telescope time, they currently get exclusive access to whatever data they collect for a full year. But there is a movement in astronomy to make most results open-access right away. That might speed up the pace of scientific discoveries and open up the data to a much wider set of researchers. On the other hand, some astronomers worry that instant open access would mostly benefit researchers who already have advantages.

In this episode, NPR's Nell Greenfieldboyce talks with Short Wave scientist in residence Regina G. Barber, who has firsthand experience competing for telescope time, about who gets dibs on the data, and how that could affect equity in astronomy.

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Short Wave - Can You See What I See?

Everyone sees the world differently. Exactly which colors you see and which of your eyes is doing more work than the other as you read this text is different for everyone. Also different? Our blind spots – both physical and social. As we continue celebrating Black History Month, today we're featuring Exploratorium Staff Physicist Educator Desiré Whitmore. She shines a light on human eyesight – how it affects perception and how understanding another person's view of the world can offer us a fuller, better picture of life.

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Unexpected Elements - Science on ice

Pull on an extra layer and stay toasty whilst Science in Action braces for a deep freeze. Whilst we know plenty about the ice on the Earth’s poles, Roland is on a chilling journey to see what can be found in deep space.

Professor Christoph Salzmann and Professor Andrea Sella at University College London have produced a new phase of ice. Roland heads to the laboratory to see how the usual crystalline ice, found in ice cubes and icebergs, can be broken down and arranged into a new structure.

The James Webb Space Telescope has detected the coldest ices to date, deep within a molecular cloud in outer space. Professor Melissa McClure describes how these clouds harbour a variety of different molecules potentially capable of forming the basic building blocks for life.

From the edges of the universe to something a little closer to home, Professor Geoff Collins and colleagues have discovered odd tectonic plate activity on icy Europa, one of Jupiter’s moons.

We generate a huge amount of noise, whether it’s our rumbling roads, pumping parties, or talkative tourists. And the topic of noise also generates a lot of questions from our listeners. In this episode we explore three of them, with the help of acoustic scientist Kurt Fristrup and neuropsychologist Catherine Loveday.

Listener Dominique finds it hard to experience even one minute of a natural soundscape without some intrusion of human-made noise. He wonders how noise pollution is affecting both the natural world and us humans. We discuss just how noisy our modern world is, and visit a National Park in California to hear how they’re encouraging more peace and quiet there.

Meanwhile Michelle, having witnessed her husband wince in pain at the sound of squeaking takeaway boxes, asks why certain noises are particularly unpleasant or even painful to some people.

And finally, Jennifer has a sonic mystery for us to solve: why does the time of day make such a difference to the distant noises reaching her remote home?

CrowdScience - How bad is our noise problem?

We generate a huge amount of noise, whether it’s our rumbling roads, pumping parties, or talkative tourists. And the topic of noise also generates a lot of questions from our listeners. In this episode we explore three of them, with the help of acoustic scientist Kurt Fristrup and neuropsychologist Catherine Loveday.

Listener Dominique finds it hard to experience even one minute of a natural soundscape without some intrusion of human-made noise. He wonders how noise pollution is affecting both the natural world and us humans. We discuss just how noisy our modern world is, and visit a National Park in California to hear how they’re encouraging more peace and quiet there.

Meanwhile Michelle, having witnessed her husband wince in pain at the sound of squeaking takeaway boxes, asks why certain noises are particularly unpleasant or even painful to some people.

And finally, Jennifer has a sonic mystery for us to solve: why does the time of day make such a difference to the distant noises reaching her remote home?

With contributions from Professor Catherine Loveday, Dr Kurt Fristrup and Mia Monroe.

Additional audio courtesy of the U.S. National Park Service/Patrick Myers, Dominique Laloux, Boise State University/Jesse Barber, and KCSU/Asher Korn

Presenter: Anand Jagatia Producer: Cathy Edwards Studio Managers: Bob Nettles and Jackie Margerum

Short Wave - A Dirty Snowball, Cancer-Sniffing Ants And A Stressed Out Moon

A green comet, cancer-sniffing ants, stealthy moons ... hang out with us as we dish on some of the coolest science stories in the news! Today, Short Wave co-hosts Emily Kwong and Aaron Scott are joined by editor Gabriel Spitzer. Together, they round up headlines in this first installment of what will be regular newsy get-togethers in your feed.

Have suggestions for what we should cover in our next news roundup? Email us at shortwave@npr.org.

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Science In Action - Science on ice

Pull on an extra layer and stay toasty whilst Science in Action braces for a deep freeze. Whilst we know plenty about the ice on the Earth’s poles, Roland is on a chilling journey to see what can be found in deep space. Professor Christoph Salzmann and Professor Andrea Sella at University College London have produced a new phase of ice. Roland heads to the laboratory to see how the usual crystalline ice, found in ice cubes and icebergs, can be broken down and arranged into a new structure. The James Webb Space Telescope has detected the coldest ices to date, deep within a molecular cloud in outer space. Professor Melissa McClure describes how these clouds harbour a variety of different molecules potentially capable of forming the basic building blocks for life. From the edges of the universe to something a little closer to home, Professor Geoff Collins and colleagues have discovered odd tectonic plate activity on icy Europa, one of Jupiter’s moons. And a theory for the origin of life that may surprise you. Professor Philipp Holliger is trying to uncover whether ice played a role in our creation, acting as a medium capable of concentrating molecules and promoting the chemical reactions required for the generation of RNA, essential for cell protein production. Presenter: Roland Pease Producer: Harrison Lewis Assistant Producer: Sophie Ormiston

(Photo: Chunk of ice. Credit: Getty Images)

Short Wave - A Fatal Virus With Pandemic Potential

The Nipah virus is on the World Health Organization's short list of diseases that have pandemic potential and therefore pose the greatest public health risk. With a fatality rate at about 70%, it is one of the most deadly respiratory diseases health officials have ever seen. But as regular outbreaks began in the early 2000s in Bangladesh, researchers were left scratching their heads. Initially, the cause of the outbreaks was unknown to them. But once they identified the virus, a second, urgent question arose: How was the virus jumping from bats into humans?

This episode is part of the series, Hidden Viruses: How Pandemics Really Begin.

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Social Science Bites - Kathryn Paige Harden on Genetics and Educational Attainment

In this Social Science Bites podcast, interviewer David Edmonds asks psychologist Kathryn Paige Harden what she could divine about his educational achievements if all she knew about him was his complete genome. “Based just on your genetic information,” she starts, “I would be able to guess about as well as I would be able to guess if I knew how much money your parents had made per year when you were growing up.”

Based on current knowledge drawn from recent samples in the United States, Harden estimates an “educational attainment polygenetic score” accounts for 15 to 17 percent of the variance in educational attainment, which is defined by years of formal education. The strength of the relationship is similar to environmental factors such as that for family wealth and educational attainment, or between educational attainment and wages.

Harden’s “guess” is as about as educated as someone in the realm could make – she directs the Developmental Behavior Genetics Lab and co-directs the Texas Twin Project at the University of Texas. Her first book was 2021’s The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality.

One thing she stresses is that genetic influence on human behavior is not the single-factor ideal youngsters learn about in their first brush with Gregor Mendel and his pea plants.

“Almost nothing we study as psychologists is monogenetic, influenced by one gene. It’s all polygenetic, meaning that there are thousands of genetic variants, each of which has a tiny probabilistic effect. If you add up all of that information, all of that genetic difference, it ends up making a difference for people’s likelihood of developing schizophrenia or doing better on intelligence test scores or having an autism spectrum disorder – but none of these things are influenced by just one gene.”

Plus, that “polygenetic score” varies based on environmental factors, such as whether you were raised in an authoritarian state. “If I had my exact DNA that I have now,” she details, “but I was raised in 1850s France compared to 1980s America, my educational output would be different, obviously, because my gender would have been interacting with those opportunity structures in a different way.”

As those structures evolve into ladders instead of roadblocks, the more utility we can derive from knowing the role of genetics.

“The more we ‘level the playing field,’ the more that people have environments that are rich and conducive to their individual flourishing, the more we should expect to see, and the more in empirical practice we do see, the role of genetic differences in people.”

In the shadow of eugenics and other genetics-based pseudo-sciences legacy, is harnessing that genetic influence for policy use good or bad? As Harden has experienced since her book published, “you can’t really talk about genes and education without fairly quickly running into some contested issues about fairness and equality.”

In fact, she argues that much of her on heritability doesn’t so much answer social science questions as much as it “poses a problem for the social sciences.”

In the podcast Harden discusses the Genome-wide Association Study, which she describes with a laugh as “a giant fishing expedition” in which researchers measure the DNA – genotype – from thousands or even millions of individuals and then measure that across the genome, for what comes down to “ a giant correlational exercise. Which genes are more common in people who are high on a trait versus low on a trait, or who have a disease versus don’t have a disease?”

Harden also addresses the reasons she studies identical twins in her research, the cooption of genetic tropes to advance toxic worldviews, and how race – which she rejects as a proxy for genetic differences — plays out in the real world as opposed to the lab.

Short Wave - The Ancient Night Sky And The Earliest Astronomers

Moiya McTier says the night sky has been fueling humans' stories about the universe for a very long time, and informing how they explain the natural world. In fact, Moiya sees astronomy and folklore as two sides of the same coin.

"To me, science is any rigorous attempt at understanding and explaining the world around you," she explained to Short Wave's Aaron Scott. "You can see that they knew enough about the world around them to predict eclipses, to predict annual floods in Egypt, for example. I think that you can use folklore and mythology to understand the early scientific attempts of humanity."

Moiya McTier is the author of The Milky Way: An Autobiography of our Galaxy. She joins us to draw out the connections between astronomy and folklore, why the night sky is more dynamic than it might look, and what it feels like to live on an astronomical timescale.

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