Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities

Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.

Further Reading:

From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility

From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver

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It Could Happen Here - Executive Disorder: White House Weekly #23

The gang discuss the DOJ‘s attempts to denaturalize American citizens, how the Big Beautiful Bill funds genocide, and Islamophobic attacks on Zohran Mamdani from Republicans and Democrats. Plus, updates on tariffs, the Diddy trial, and Elon Musk’s subsidies.

Sources:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/27/us/birthright-citizenship-supreme-court?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes 

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/mother-and-young-kids-inside-during-explosive-huntington-park-raid-suspect-not-home/  

https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/bob-vylan-visa-revoked-state-department-1235375566/

https://bsky.app/profile/mclem.org/post/3lstr4lfyns2w

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-secures-denaturalization-convicted-distributor-child-sexual-abuse 

https://bsky.app/profile/immdef.bsky.social

https://laopinion.com/2025/06/30/hija-de-inmigrante-secuestrada-por-encapuchados-no-encuentra-a-su-madre-enferma/

https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2025cv0306-71

https://x.com/RepOgles/status/1938301392416084150

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/01/kirsten-gillibrand-zohran-mamdani-00436031

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU8dU-K1qZ4 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article309792865.html

https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/berks/tesla-sedan-hit-by-train-after-self-driving-error-in-berks-county-stops-train-traffic/article_aa1cbbf4-7918-4379-b557-da80f9596103.html 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-whats-in-the-big-bill-that-just-passed-the-senate

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/how-might-federal-medicaid-cuts-in-the-senate-passed-reconciliation-bill-affect-rural-areas/

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/trump-trade-vietnam-deal.html

https://newrepublic.com/post/197412/donald-trump-big-beautiful-budget-bill-devastating-poll

https://www.cbpp.org/research/medicaid-and-chip/senate-reconciliation-amendment-would-cut-hundreds-of-billions-more-from

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-in-trump-big-beautiful-bill-senate-version/

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CBS News Roundup - 07/02/2025 | World News Roundup Late Edition

Music mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs denied bond after convictions on prostitution-related federal charges. Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to killing 4 University of Idaho students. Budget bill stalls in the House.

CBS News Correspondent Jennifer Keiper with tonight's World News Roundup.

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PBS News Hour - Art Beat - Why the jury returned a mixed verdict in the trial of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs

Sean “Diddy" Combs was acquitted of sex trafficking and racketeering charges, but found guilty of prostitution offenses. The mixed verdict brings an end to one of the most closely watched trials in the country. Geoff Bennett discussed more with Moira Penza, a former assistant U.S. attorney who led the prosecution that resulted in the sex trafficking conviction of NXIVM leader Keith Raniere. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

PBS News Hour - World - Iran is intensifying its crackdown on dissent, Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi says

Iran announced it would suspend cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, likely preventing a review of the damage done to its nuclear sites and setting Washington and Tehran on another collision course. It comes as Iran has launched a massive operation to find Israeli spies. Nick Schifrin spoke with Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, who describes it as a harsh crackdown on all dissent. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Stuff They Don't Want You To Know - The Terrifying Tale of Aum Shinrikyo, Chapter One: The Rise of a Cult Leader

Modern-day Japan is often lauded as one of the safest countries on the planet -- but that doesn't make this nation immune to the danger of cults. In the first chapter of this special two-part series, Ben and Matt explore the bizarre, conspiratorial rise of the organization known as Aum Shinrikyo.

They don't want you to read our book.: https://static.macmillan.com/static/fib/stuff-you-should-read/

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Marketplace All-in-One - Reading the labor market tea leaves

Consumer spending sputtered in May, likely thanks to tariffs and related uncertainty. Not only does that give us a clue as to where GDP is headed, it could also help us predict the labor market's next move. Later in this episode: Slowed hiring could have a silver lining (depending on your perspective), the U.S. dollar is down 10% so far this year, and we visit a pop-up brewery focused on racial equity.


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