Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova - Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamdani’s recent win in New York City’s Democratic primary, and what it might mean for elections moving forward. They also discuss the language we use to convey probability, and why talking about it can be so difficult. Plus, they answer some audience questions.
Further Reading:
From Adam Kucharski’s newsletter, Understanding the unseen: Possibly a serious possibility
From Silver Bulletin: Zohran delivered the Democratic establishment the thrashing it deserved
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Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver
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array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/951120d9-cf6e-4224-93d7-b15c014dcea5/09282467-8021-4981-9fdb-b30f0019310e/image.jpg?t=1751507216&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }It Could Happen Here - Executive Disorder: White House Weekly #23
The gang discuss the DOJ‘s attempts to denaturalize American citizens, how the Big Beautiful Bill funds genocide, and Islamophobic attacks on Zohran Mamdani from Republicans and Democrats. Plus, updates on tariffs, the Diddy trial, and Elon Musk’s subsidies.
Sources:
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/bob-vylan-visa-revoked-state-department-1235375566/
https://bsky.app/profile/mclem.org/post/3lstr4lfyns2w
https://bsky.app/profile/immdef.bsky.social
https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2025cv0306-71
https://x.com/RepOgles/status/1938301392416084150
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/01/kirsten-gillibrand-zohran-mamdani-00436031
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU8dU-K1qZ4
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article309792865.html
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-whats-in-the-big-bill-that-just-passed-the-senate
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/trump-trade-vietnam-deal.html
https://newrepublic.com/post/197412/donald-trump-big-beautiful-budget-bill-devastating-poll
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-in-trump-big-beautiful-bill-senate-version/
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array(3) { [0]=> string(184) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/78d30acb-8463-4c40-a5ae-ae2d0145c9ff/2d6bda82-15f8-4894-8721-b30e014717c8/image.jpg?t=1751486031&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }The World in Brief from The Economist - British government bonds slump; House debates “One, Big, Beautiful Bill”, and more
Global News Podcast - ‘Diddy’ cleared of sex trafficking and racketeering; convicted on two other charges
A New York jury clears Sean "Diddy" Combs of sex trafficking and racketeering but finds him guilty of transportation to engage in prostitution. Also: Dining on foie gras in space, and marking moths' decline in sound.
CBS News Roundup - 07/02/2025 | World News Roundup Late Edition
Music mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs denied bond after convictions on prostitution-related federal charges. Bryan Kohberger pleads guilty to killing 4 University of Idaho students. Budget bill stalls in the House.
CBS News Correspondent Jennifer Keiper with tonight's World News Roundup.
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PBS News Hour - Art Beat - Why the jury returned a mixed verdict in the trial of Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs
PBS News Hour - World - Iran is intensifying its crackdown on dissent, Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi says
Stuff They Don't Want You To Know - The Terrifying Tale of Aum Shinrikyo, Chapter One: The Rise of a Cult Leader
Modern-day Japan is often lauded as one of the safest countries on the planet -- but that doesn't make this nation immune to the danger of cults. In the first chapter of this special two-part series, Ben and Matt explore the bizarre, conspiratorial rise of the organization known as Aum Shinrikyo.
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array(3) { [0]=> string(150) "https://www.omnycontent.com/d/programs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/2e824128-fbd5-4c9e-9a57-ae2f0056b0c4/image.jpg?t=1749831085&size=Large" [1]=> string(10) "image/jpeg" [2]=> int(0) }Marketplace All-in-One - Reading the labor market tea leaves
Consumer spending sputtered in May, likely thanks to tariffs and related uncertainty. Not only does that give us a clue as to where GDP is headed, it could also help us predict the labor market's next move. Later in this episode: Slowed hiring could have a silver lining (depending on your perspective), the U.S. dollar is down 10% so far this year, and we visit a pop-up brewery focused on racial equity.
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